References

Peer-reviewed publications relevant to the nexus

(A comprehensive review paper is in progress and will be made available. Note: these are not necessarily open-access)

General Nexus and climate references:

Brando, P. M., J. K. Balch, D. C. Nepstad, D. C. Morton, F. E. Putz, M. T. Coe, D. Silverio, M. N. Macedo, E. A. Davidson, C. C. Nobrega, A. Alencar, and B. S. Soares. 2014. ‘Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111: 6347-52.

Burrows, M. T., D. S. Schoeman, L. B. Buckley, P. Moore, E. S. Poloczanska, K. M. Brander, C. Brown, J. F. Bruno, C. M. Duarte, B. S. Halpern, J. Holding, C. V. Kappel, W. Kiessling, M. I. O’Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. B. Schwing, W. J. Sydeman, and A. J. Richardson. 2011. ‘The Pace of Shifting Climate in Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems‘, science, 334: 652-55.

Davidson, Eric A, Alessandro C de Araújo, Paulo Artaxo, Jennifer K Balch, I Foster Brown, Mercedes MC Bustamante, Michael T Coe, Ruth S DeFries, Michael Keller, and Marcos Longo. 2012. ‘The Amazon basin in transition‘, Nature, 481: 321-28.

Escobar, H. 2015. ‘Drought triggers alarms in Brazil’s biggest metropolis‘, science, 347: 812.

Faostat, FAO. 2017. ‘Statistical databases‘, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.

GEA. 2012. ‘Global Energy Assessment—toward a sustainable future’, Cambridge, UK, and Laxenburg, Austria: Cambridge University Press and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Harvey, M., and S. Pilgrim. 2011. ‘The new competition for land: Food, energy, and climate change‘, Food Policy, 36: S40-S51.

IEA. 2016. IEA World Energy Outlook (OECD/IEA).

IEA. 2017. IEA World Energy Balances dataset (OECD/IEA).

IPCC. 2014a. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis: Working Group I contribution to the Fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press).

IPCC. 2014b. ‘Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‘, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY.

Jump, A. S., and J. Penuelas. 2005. ‘Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change‘, Ecology Letters, 8: 1010-20.

Lambin, E. F., and P. Meyfroidt. 2011. ‘Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108: 3465-72.

Lapola, D. M., L. A. Martinelli, C. A. Peres, J. P. H. B. Ometto, M. E. Ferreira, C. A. Nobre, A. P. D. Aguiar, M. M. C. Bustamante, M. F. Cardoso, M. H. Costa, C. A. Joly, C. C. Leite, P. Moutinho, G. Sampaio, B. B. N. Strassburg, and I. C. G. Vieira. 2014. ‘Pervasive transition of the Brazilian land-use system‘, Nature Climate Change, 4: 27-35.

Lewis, S. L., P. M. Brando, O. L. Phillips, G. M. F. van der Heijden, and D. Nepstad. 2011. ‘The 2010 Amazon Drought‘, science, 331: 554-54.

Malhi, Yadvinder, J Timmons Roberts, Richard A Betts, Timothy J Killeen, Wenhong Li, and Carlos A Nobre. 2008. ‘Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon‘, science, 319: 169-72.

Morton, D. C., R. S. DeFries, Y. E. Shimabukuro, L. O. Anderson, E. Arai, F. D. B. Espirito-Santo, R. Freitas, and J. Morisette. 2006. ‘Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103: 14637-41.

Nepstad, D. C., C. M. Stickler, and O. T. Almeida. 2006. ‘Globalization of the Amazon soy and beef industries: Opportunities for conservation‘, Conservation Biology, 20: 1595-603.

Nepstad, D. C., C. M. Stickler, B. Soares, and F. Merry. 2008. ‘Interactions among Amazon land use, forests and climate: prospects for a near-term forest tipping point‘, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 363: 1737-46.

Nobre, C. A., G. Sampaio, L. S. Borma, J. C. Castilla-Rubio, J. S. Silva, and M. Cardoso. 2016. ‘Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 113: 10759-68.

Phillips, O. L., L. E. O. C. Aragao, S. L. Lewis, J. B. Fisher, J. Lloyd, G. Lopez-Gonzalez, Y. Malhi, A. Monteagudo, J. Peacock, C. A. Quesada, G. van der Heijden, S. Almeida, I. Amaral, L. Arroyo, G. Aymard, T. R. Baker, O. Banki, L. Blanc, D. Bonal, P. Brando, J. Chave, A. C. A. de Oliveira, N. D. Cardozo, C. I. Czimczik, T. R. Feldpausch, M. A. Freitas, E. Gloor, N. Higuchi, E. Jimenez, G. Lloyd, P. Meir, C. Mendoza, A. Morel, D. A. Neill, D. Nepstad, S. Patino, M. C. Penuela, A. Prieto, F. Ramirez, M. Schwarz, J. Silva, M. Silveira, A. S. Thomas, H. ter Steege, J. Stropp, R. Vasquez, P. Zelazowski, E. A. Davila, S. Andelman, A. Andrade, K. J. Chao, T. Erwin, A. Di Fiore, E. Honorio, H. Keeling, T. J. Killeen, W. F. Laurance, A. P. Cruz, N. C. A. Pitman, P. N. Vargas, H. Ramirez-Angulo, A. Rudas, R. Salamao, N. Silva, J. Terborgh, and A. Torres-Lezama. 2009. ‘Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest‘, science, 323: 1344-47.

Tollefson, Jeff. 2015. ‘Battle for the Amazon‘, Nature, 520: 20.

Wheeler, T., and J. von Braun. 2013. ‘Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security‘, science, 341: 508-13.

 

Studies relevant for the Energy-Water link:

Barros, Vicente R, Christian R Garavaglia, and Moira E Doyle. 2013. ‘Twenty-first century projections of extreme precipitations in the Plata Basin‘, International Journal of River Basin Management, 11: 373-87.

da Silva Soito, João Leonardo, and Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos Freitas. 2011. ‘Amazon and the expansion of hydropower in Brazil: Vulnerability, impacts and possibilities for adaptation to global climate change‘, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15: 3165-77.

De Lucena, André Frossard Pereira, Alexandre Salem Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, Raquel Rodrigues de Souza, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar Borba, Isabella Vaz Leal da Costa, Amaro Olimpio Pereira Júnior, and Sergio Henrique Ferreira da Cunha. 2009. ‘The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil‘, Energy Policy, 37: 879-89.

Prado, Fernando Almeida, Simone Athayde, Joann Mossa, Stephanie Bohlman, Flavia Leite, and Anthony Oliver-Smith. 2016. ‘How much is enough? An integrated examination of energy security, economic growth and climate change related to hydropower expansion in Brazil‘, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 53: 1132-36.

 

Studies relevant for the Energy-Food link:

Adami, Marcos, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor Rudorff, Ramon Morais Freitas, Daniel Alves Aguiar, Luciana Miura Sugawara, and Marcio Pupin Mello. 2012. ‘Remote sensing time series to evaluate direct land use change of recent expanded sugarcane crop in Brazil‘, Sustainability, 4: 574-85.

Bowyer, Catherine, and Bettina Kretschmer. 2010. ‘Anticipated Indirect land use change associated with expanded use of biofuels and bioliquids in the EU–an analysis of the national renewable energy action plans‘, IIEP (March 2011): 8-9.

de Souza Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento, and Mark Horridge. 2014. ‘Ethanol expansion and indirect land use change in Brazil‘, Land Use Policy, 36: 595-604.

Fachinelli, Natália Pezzi, and Amaro Olimpio Pereira. 2015. ‘Impacts of sugarcane ethanol production in the Paranaiba basin water resources‘, Biomass and Bioenergy, 83: 8-16.

Fargione, J., J. Hill, D. Tilman, S. Polasky, and P. Hawthorne. 2008. ‘Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt‘, science, 319: 1235-38.

Hoogwijk, M., A. Faaij, B. de Vries, and W. Turkenburg. 2009. ‘Exploration of regional and global cost-supply curves of biomass energy from short-rotation crops at abandoned cropland and rest land under four IPCC SRES land-use scenarios‘, Biomass & Bioenergy, 33: 26-43.

Lossau, Selma, Günther Fischer, Sylvia Tramberend, Harrij van Velthuizen, Birgit Kleinschmit, and Reinhard Schomäcker. 2015. ‘Brazil’s current and future land balances: Is there residual land for bioenergy production?‘, Biomass and Bioenergy, 81: 452-61.

Mercure, J. F., and P. Salas. 2012. ‘An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials‘, Energy, 46: 322-36.

Miller, Shelie A. 2010. ‘Minimizing land use and nitrogen intensity of bioenergy‘, Environmental science & technology, 44: 3932-39.

Rose, Steven K, Elmar Kriegler, Ruben Bibas, Katherine Calvin, Alexander Popp, Detlef P van Vuuren, and John Weyant. 2014. ‘Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management‘, Climatic Change, 123: 477-93.

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor, Daniel Alves Aguiar, Wagner Fernando Silva, Luciana Miura Sugawara, Marcos Adami, and Mauricio Alves Moreira. 2010. ‘Studies on the rapid expansion of sugarcane for ethanol production in São Paulo State (Brazil) using Landsat data‘, Remote sensing, 2: 1057-76.

Searchinger, T. D. 2010. ‘Biofuels and the need for additional carbon‘, Environmental Research Letters, 5.

Smeets, E. M. W., A. P. C. Faaij, I. M. Lewandowski, and W. C. Turkenburg. 2007. ‘A bottom-up assessment and review of global bio-energy potentials to 2050‘, Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 33: 56-106.

 

Studies relevant for the Water-Food link:

Barbieri, Alisson F, Edson Domingues, Bernardo L Queiroz, Ricardo M Ruiz, José I Rigotti, José AM Carvalho, and Marco F Resende. 2010. ‘Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050‘, Population and environment, 31: 344-70.

Confalonieri, Ulisses EC, Anna Carolina L Lima, Isabela Brito, and Ana Flávia Quintão. 2014. ‘Social, environmental and health vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Northeastern Region‘, Climatic Change, 127: 123-37.

Cook, Brian, Ning Zeng, and Jin-Ho Yoon. 2012. ‘Will Amazonia dry out? Magnitude and causes of change from IPCC climate model projections‘, Earth Interactions, 16: 1-27.

Marengo, J. A., and M. Bernasconi. 2015. ‘Regional differences in aridity/drought conditions over Northeast Brazil: present state and future projections‘, Climatic Change, 129: 103-15.

Marengo, Jose A, Lincoln M Alves, Wagner R Soares, Daniel A Rodriguez, Helio Camargo, Marco Paredes Riveros, and Amelia Diaz Pabló. 2013. ‘Two contrasting severe seasonal extremes in tropical South America in 2012: flood in Amazonia and drought in northeast Brazil‘, Journal of Climate, 26: 9137-54.

 

Studies relevant for the Energy-Water-Food link:

Arima, E. Y., P. Richards, R. Walker, and M. M. Caldas. 2011. ‘Statistical confirmation of indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon‘, Environmental Research Letters, 6.

Barona, E., N. Ramankutty, G. Hyman, and O. T. Coomes. 2010. ‘The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon‘, Environmental Research Letters, 5.

Brown-Lima, Carrie, Melissa Cooney, and David Cleary. 2010. ‘An overview of the Brazil-China soybean trade and its strategic implications for conservation‘, The Nature Conservancy Latin America Region.(Citing figures from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX)) The Nature Conservancy, Brazil: 40.

Lapola, D. M., R. Schaldach, J. Alcamo, A. Bondeau, J. Koch, C. Koelking, and J. A. Priess. 2010. ‘Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107: 3388-93.

Lapola, D. M., R. Schaldach, J. Alcamo, A. Bondeau, J. Koch, C. Koelking, and J. A. Priess. 2010. ‘Indirect land-use changes can overcome carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil‘, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107: 3388-93.

Nepstad, Daniel, David McGrath, Claudia Stickler, Ane Alencar, Andrea Azevedo, Briana Swette, Tathiana Bezerra, Maria DiGiano, João Shimada, and Ronaldo Seroa da Motta. 2014. ‘Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains‘, science, 344: 1118-23.